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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention intends to award a sole source firm fixed price purchase order to RESEARCH TRIANGLE INSTITUTE for the update and expansion of the current CDC Microsimula... The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention intends to award a sole source firm fixed price purchase order to RESEARCH TRIANGLE INSTITUTE for the update and expansion of the current CDC Microsimulation of Nutrition, Diabetes, and Cardiovascular Disease (MONDAC). Diabetes is a serious health condition with lasting health consequences, including heart disease, stroke, kidney disease, blindness, limb amputation and premature death. Over 37 million Americans live with the disease and 96 million American adults were at very high risk (pre-diabetes) in 2019. Type 2 diabetes, which accounts for over 95% of diabetes cases, is preventable through reductions of risk factors associated with the disease. Preventing type 2 diabetes is a national public heath priority. Physical activity is associated with reduced risk of type 2 diabetes. Protective mechanisms of physical activity for developing type 2 diabetes include the regulation of body weight; the reduction of insulin resistance, hypertension, atherogenic dyslipidemia, and inflammation. In cross-sectional and ecological studies, higher levels of physical activity are associated with lower prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Physically active individuals have a 30-50% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes than do sedentary persons and that physical activity confers a similar risk reduction for coronary heart disease. Many effective approaches are available to increase the physical activity level among US adults: behavioral and social approaches, campaigns and informational approaches; and policy and environmental approaches. Before taking any action, or widely implementing interventions that are already in place on a small scale for increasing physical activity at either individual or population levels, decision makers frequently need information on the likely consequences of taking the proposed intervention/policy action, such as “can the policy action achieve the intended public health goal or is the policy action cost-effective?” Health benefits of physical activity interventions are multi-dimensional to a community and usually last beyond the initial implementation period. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture all the effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a policy after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health actions are often required to deal with new public health issues, for which there is little or no previous data available. Mathematical/statistical simulation models can help to assess potential impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data generated from complex and multi-dimensional systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health planning and action. From 2016 to 2018, working with RTI International, the Division of Diabetes Traslation (DDT) developed a Microsimulation of Nutrition, Diabetes, and Cardiovascular Disease (MONDAC) model to assess the health and cost consequences of population-wide food and nutrition policies for preventing type 2 diabetes. Users can use the model to examine how changes in diet quality or caloric intake resulting from a broad array of policy interventions would impact health outcomes and costs. The user simulates policies by supplying the model with information on the effect and cost of those policies . Users choose between pre-set policies or customize their own. The policies in the model are targeted at the consumption of calories, overall diet quality, or specific foods. The model reports the impact of dietary changes on downstream outcomes: body-mass index (BMI), diabetes incidence, cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, all-cause mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), direct medical costs, and cost-effectiveness. The model has been operating on CDC’s network online since 2019. Researchers have used the MONDAC model to assess the long-term cost-effectivness of imposing sugar-sweetened beverage taxes in selected states in the United States. How changes in dietary intake and physical activity would affect diabetes and cardiovascular diseases share a number of commonalities. For example, both reducing consumption of calories and increasing physical activity levels would reduce bodyweight or BMI, which would lower the risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases and improve a person’s quality of life. The targeted population for both interventions are also similar, i.e., persons who are either overweight or obese. Thus, the MONDAC model can be modified and expanded to include interventions/policy targeted at promoting or increasing physical activities. RTI International was the developer of the MONDAC model. It has all expertise required to update and expand this model including epidemiologists, statisticians, computer programmers. In addition, as the original developer, RTI knows the design and all data and methods and programming codes used for this model. RTI International as the original developer of the MONDAC model has been identified as the only vendor that can meet all the research requirements of this complex model and deliver the best value of money for the government. This contract action is for supplies or services for which the Government intends to solicit and negotiate with only one source under the authority of FAR 13.106-1(b) (SAP) and 10 U.S.C. 2304(c)(1). Interested persons may identify their interest and capability to respond to the requirement or submit proposals. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive quotations; however, all quotations/responses received within fifteen (15) days of the issuance of this notice will be considered by the government. A determination by the government not to compete this proposed contract based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the government. Information received will normally be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement. Any quotation/response should be emailed to contract specialist at qsx8@cdc.gov by COB 5pm Est, June 2, 2022